SHOULD YOU BUY NOW OR WAIT? A REALISTIC LOOK AT THE RI MARKET HEADING INTO FALL

If you’ve been keeping an eye on mortgage rates, you’re not alone. Buyers across Rhode Island, and nationwide, are waiting for the “magic number” … 6% … before making a move. According to the National Association of Realtors, that’s the rate many feel will make buying affordable again. But is that number actually on the horizon?

Where Rates Stand Today

Most forecasts predict mortgage rates will hover in the mid-to-low sixes through the end of next year. That means a big drop isn’t expected anytime soon. However, after the most recent weaker-than-expected jobs report, rates slipped to their lowest point this year at 6.55%. That sparked hope they’re headed downward.

The truth is, the path forward depends heavily on upcoming economic reports. Experts agree small changes are possible, but no one is projecting a major rate cut in the immediate future.

What Happens If Rates Hit 6%?

When rates do fall to 6%, it could unlock demand from an estimated 5.5 million additional buyers nationwide. That sounds promising but it also means more competition.

If you wait for that threshold, you’ll likely face multiple-offer scenarios, fewer opportunities to negotiate, and more bidding wars. Buying now, while rates are still relatively steady, could give you more negotiating power and less competition.

A Rhode Island Reality Check

Rhode Island’s housing market remains strong, though not without challenges. According to the Rhode Island Association of Realtors, the median single-family home price hit $520,000 in June 2025, up 5.3% year-over-year and a 73.6% increase since 2019.

Inventory is improving, with the number of homes on the market up 20.4% from last year. That helped boost single-family sales activity by 14.2%, the largest year-over-year increase of all residential property types in Q2.

Other segments are seeing notable shifts:

• - Condos: Median sales price rose 18.4% to $417,500, with sales up 15.5%.

• - Multifamily homes: Listings surged 62% year-over-year, while sales climbed a modest 4.1%. Prices rose 13% to $599,000, and properties sold faster than other home types.

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Even with these gains, Rhode Island still has only about half the supply needed for a balanced market. On top of that, out-of-state buyers continue to add pressure as nearly 1 in 4 buyers (23.5%) this year came from outside RI, and nearly 46% of $1M+ sales involved out-of-state buyers.

The New Conveyance Tax

Another factor to keep in mind: Rhode Island’s new conveyance tax increase takes effect on October 1, 2025.

Here’s how it works:

• - For properties $800,000 or less: The tax will rise from $2.30 per $500 to $3.75 per $500 of the purchase price.

• - For residential properties over $800,000: The first $800,000 is taxed at $3.75 per $500, and the portion above $800,000 is taxed at $7.50 per $500.

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For example, on a $1,000,000 home, the first $800,000 is taxed at $3.75/$500, and the remaining $200,000 is taxed at $7.50/$500.

Sellers are typically responsible for paying the tax at closing (unless otherwise agreed). Note it’s the closing date, not the date the purchase and sales agreement is signed, that determines which rate applies.

This could motivate some sellers, especially in the luxury market, to close before October 1st, creating opportunities for buyers this fall.

The Bottom Line

Ultimately, the decision to buy now or wait isn’t just about interest rates. It’s about your financial readiness, your lifestyle needs, and the realities of the Rhode Island market.

If you buy now, you may benefit from less competition, stronger negotiating power, and potential inventory shifts ahead of the tax increase. If you wait, you risk entering a more competitive market when rates drop and facing higher prices or closing costs.

If the numbers work for you today, buying this fall could be to your advantage.

Give us a call at 401-848-7827 to start the conversation. Whether you’re ready to buy now or just exploring your options, we’ll walk you through the Rhode Island market and help you decide the best time to make your move.